Elevated expectations founded on the maturity and confidence of quarterback Darron Thomas was betrayed by the lack of experience at receiver and on the offensive line. No question this outcome could be envisioned but had been discounted. The truth of all truths in football is that it starts up front.
A return to the BCS Championship game isn't an impossibility at this point, but there is no denying it will take a very tumultuous 2011 regular season to elevate the Ducks back into serious consideration
There are, however, a number of positives to be taken from this game. Oregon's defense was mostly solid, holding the Tigers to field goals in a couple of short field situations. A pair of dropped passes certainly helped the secondary's cause but on the defensive line and at linebacker, the Ducks held their own. Michael Clay and Anthony Guildon in particular stand out for their play.
Offensively, De'Anthony Thomas will have to accept his two fumbles ended any possibility of a victory and take appropriate ball security measures. But don't ignore the five pass receptions in the first half nor the jolt he was running through the opposition before the ball came loose - he does make people miss. Badly.
Size upfront on both sides of the ball and experience were the two trump cards the Tigers held coming into the contest and they played them to perfection.
The good news is that Oregon won't see comparable size on either side of the ball again this season. It is a reasonable assumption Oregon's offensive line will have better days opening lanes for the running game against the defensive fronts they will see for the rest from the rest of their schedule.
It is also fair to note that had Darron Thomas and his receiving corps been sharp, this was a game the Ducks could still have won. The pressure of the LSU defensive front was a factor yes, but not overwhelming so. Thomas misfired or receivers didn't secure catches that would have moved chains and sustained possessions, not to mention kept his running backs from getting beat up by that oversized defensive front.
So this isn't a case of "back to the drawing board" so much as it is a case of getting better at what is on drawn on the board.
The season's first look shows an offense that remains a threat to blow up a defense in a thousand ways. As mentioned above, the running game will gain lethality as offensive line play improves. Thomas and his receivers aren't yet fully on the same page, but the disparity is mostly in timing, not routes or reads. It is not unusual for the passing game to improve exponentially over the course of the first three games, again not an unreasonable assumption for the Ducks.
The LSU offensive line did manhandle Oregon's defensive front on occasion, but not to the point of concern until and unless the Ducks face Wisconsin or maybe Nebraska in a Rose Bowl match-up.
Another area of improvement has to be penalties. Several, particularly in the first half, stymied Oregon's offensive momentum. Limit the hankies to the first game and Oregon's offense is immediately more crisp and able to build one play off another. If they continue to move 15 yards back every four or five snaps on a drive, Oregon's effectiveness diminishes quickly.
A frequent criticism has been the Ducks are yet to come away with a defining victory in one of these high profile match-ups. If you've got a month to prepare for Kelly's offense, the theory holds, you can beat the Ducks. Empirical evidence to date clearly shows that to be the case but the underlying logic is faulty. On a couple of points.
First - it is something of a backhanded compliment to make the criticism in the first place because it is clear no one with seven days to prepare has beaten him yet. And if memory serves correct 95% of the schedule is a weekly exercise.
Any school would jump at landing a coach with such a "built-in" advantage. Whatever may be said about the big stage, Kelly's offense, his staff and his recruits win football games, a lot of them. Against a wide variety of offenses and defenses - X' and O's aren't an issue.
Secondly - as Kelly pointed out during his interview on GameDay - those losses have been to very, very good football teams, and each employs a similar smash mouth philosophy.
Only against Boise State in 2010 did the Ducks hold a size advantage in the trenches and statistically there just isn't a large pool of players to recruit to those positions. Historically those players end up mostly in the SEC, but also at Nebraska, Ohio State and recently at Wisconsin.
If the Oregon were to find a pipeline of Haloti Ngata's or Igor Olshanky's the Ducks enter the ranks of the consistently top-5 programs.
Lacking that singular ingredient, the Ducks still have more talent than any of their conference foes. Significantly so.
If injuries can be avoided, the positives in evidence despite what was unquestionably a very disappointing loss still leaves Oregon in a very enviable position. A Rose Bowl berth and another opportunity to take the national stage are powerful motivators. But it also remains a true fact when they get there they likely will face a team bigger than they are on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
All Saturday's loss to LSU demonstrates is that the Ducks would not be favored, but it did not show that Kelly and his team aren't capable of winning such a match-up.
The Ducks have to get on - and remain on - their front foot from start to finish. No turnovers. Fewer penalties. Better offensive production from the passing game, particularly early on. Don't settle for field goals but find a way into the end zone. Create defensive turnovers. Get a play from special teams.
These are all things Oregon can do whatever size disadvantages they may face on the line of scrimmage. But when those aspects are lacking or break down, the line of scrimmage is where the game quickly gets decided. It's Oregon's challenge to simply not let the game get to that decision point.
